Thursday, November 15, 2012

Who will make and sell cars in the future?

Imagine a new automotive ecosphere in which manufacturing is no longer a core competency and consumer demand for the newest technology is as avid as demand for the latest, greatest video console or smart phone. Who will make and sell cars? Who will get left behind? What kinds of strategic alliances, joint ventures, or mergers will reshape the competitive landscape? Will new consumer products companies enter the market? In pondering these questions, we’ve identified four potential new business models.

The Branded Integrated Life-Style Model
It’s a sleekly designed experience, riding in this self-driving car. As elegantly designed as the sleekest smart phone. You use an app on your phone to summon your car when you need it or to program a daily pick-up. It’s as simple as setting the alarm on your phone. Your windshield doubles as a screen, synching seamlessly with your other connected devices. As you ride along, you swipe through applications and web sites, checking your progress and the local weather on a digital dashboard, uploading photos to your favorite web site or watching a video. When you arrive at your destination, the screens you’ve opened are synched and waiting for you on whatever device you pick up next.

In this model, perhaps a company with no traditional presence in the auto industry that is already an integral part of the consumer’s life outside the vehicle could become a key participant in the ecosystem. Since self-driving vehicles will no longer need the same level of rigorous testing and validation, and manufacturing could potentially be outsourced, their emphasis would be on consumer research, product development, and sale of integrated lifestyle experiences.

The Open System Model
It’s all about the data and how to use these data to customize the consumer value proposition. The market for big data is growing exponentially. Market intelligence provider IDC predicts that by 2015 the “Big Data” market will be $16.9 billion, up from $3.2 billion in 2010. A major player in the data market might not want to manufacture vehicles, but could well design a vehicle operating system. With more than a billion cars serving up trillions of data points about consumer behavior, traffic patterns, and topography, an operating system (OS) developer could afford to give away the OS but accrue significant value from the data they could aggregate. Who would manufacture the vehicle? The OS provider could partner with any of the world’s vehicle manufacturers—and not just the traditional automotive manufacturers. Partnerships could be established with one or more new players who might compete in the branded technology arena.

The Mobility On Demand Model
Zipcar was the pioneer in the shared-vehicle field, but other players are breaking into the market. Whereas current mobility on demand providers must make vehicles easily accessible for customers in urban areas, their vehicle maintenance and parking fees are high. With self-driving vehicles, proximity to end-users would no longer be necessary. Vehicles could be dispatched by taxi and car service companies.

Giant retailers with a core competence in managing complex distribution channels or fleet providers with the capability to manage the complexity of renting and allocation of fleets could enter the fray and accrue significant value in the new ecosystem. New entrants in the market might compete at either end of the spectrum—with generic, low-cost utilitarian transportation on demand at one end (the low-cost airline model) and super-luxury mobile executive suites and sleeping pods at the other (the first class or private jet experience).

Success will be determined by efficiency, reliability, flexibility, vehicle maintenance, customer service, ease of human-vehicle interface, and integration with existing consumer devices—and all the other psychographic factors that determine consumer behaviors and brand preferences.

The OEM Model
Traditional automotive manufacturers have decades of experience in designing and manufacturing vehicles, and shaping an emotional connection with consumers. But will they move fast enough to maintain their brand dominance? Smart automotive manufacturers should be planning now, thinking about how to restructure their organizations and what potential strategic investments they should be making.

History has not been kind to those who get stuck protecting the status quo in the face of disruptive change. In fact, collaboration is already taking place across the ecosystem as companies strive to stay relevant. The joint project between Intel and DENSO to develop in-vehicle communication and information systems exemplifies the new cross-industry synergistic relationships.

Vertical integration is an option for companies looking to bring a critical skill or technology in house. Some vehicle manufacturers have established venture capital subsidiaries to invest in promising new technologies as a means of bridging any skill or technology gaps. Doing so may provide a competitive advantage in this rapidly evolving ecosystem.

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Read more from http://www.obdscanner.us/who-will-make-and-sell-cars-in-the-future.html

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